EUAA Submission: AEMO Reliability Forecasting Guidelines & Methodologies
Emily Wood | March 7, 2023
‘… Thank you for the opportunity to make a submission under the Reliability Forecasting and Methodology Consultation. This submission supports the submission made by Shell Energy on this matter. EUAA agrees with all arguments put forth by Shell Energy. EUAA would like to draw particular attention to:
Perceived Conservatism in AEMO’s Reliability Forecasts
- As stated in our submission to the Forecasting Accuracy and Improvement Plan, AEMO’s forecasting is regularly overstated that directly leads to unnecessary market interventions that are costly to the end consumer.
- The EUAA welcomes the proposed changes to the Reliability Forecasting Guidelines that will result in less activation of market interventions, and thus reduce costs to consumers.
- However, EUAA agrees with Shell Energy that AEMO should consider using a 30% POE forecast to estimate unserved energy, reducing the number of unnecessary market intervention, while not missing any actual events that require market intervention.
Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection (EAAP)
- The EUAA endorses AEMO’s approach to the three core scenarios in the EAAP, noting that the Central Scenario will be the option used for routine activation of LRC, and the Low Rainfall and Low Thermal Fuel Scenarios will only be called upon when those scenarios actually exist (e.g. La Nina event).
- EUAA does not support AEMO performing sensitivity analysis on these scenarios without prior stakeholder consultation. The use of sensitivity analysis should be used to test a model’s output sensitivity to various inputs, not as an alternative to performing further scenarios with different inputs. EUAA sees the approach proposed by AEMO for sensitivity analysis as conducive to artificially inflating the number of unnecessary market interventions…..’
Download attachment to read full submission.
